Extended Arrival of La Niña
La Niña has set in, but the wait for her arrival may be longer than initially expected. When the Climate Prediction Center first announced La Niña in June, national meteorologists said the weather pattern was expected to develop between July and September. In an update posted Thursday, they said the timeline has been extended a bit. Now, La Niña is not expected to develop until the fall, sometime between September and October.
ENSO Neutral Phase
At the same time, we are in “ENSO neutral” mode. This means that neither La Niña nor El Niño exists. The Climate Prediction Center said it expects the neutral pattern to continue for at least several months. This extension is good news for Gulf and East Coast states as La Niña years are associated with more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
Potential Winter Weather Impacts
According to the latest climate models, once La Niña forms, there is a 74% chance that it will last throughout the winter. La Niña typically peaks in winter, when it has the greatest impact on weather. La Niña winters typically mean dry, warm conditions in the southern half of the country. In Southern California, residents can expect a drier winter with less rainfall and snowfall. This could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires, especially in the fall and early winter.
Climate experts say precipitation in Northern California, while difficult to predict, is also likely to be below average. However, the region’s response to La Niña is highly variable and, in some cases, periods of heavy rainfall are still possible. The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley tend to see more precipitation, and northern states can see extremely cold weather.
